WHY UNBINARY
Existing price prediction platforms resolve a different problem — they let traders bet on discrete thresholds. Unbinary lets them state a price. That single design choice propagates into deeper liquidity, cleaner signal, and a data output that analytics desks have been asking for.
SCALAR VS BINARY
| Dimension | Unbinary | Polymarket / Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Prediction type | Any exact price | Multiple threshold buckets (Yes / No) |
| Expressiveness | Continuous | Discrete |
| Liquidity structure | Consolidated — one pool per asset | Fragmented — separate pool per bucket |
| Depth in tails | No segregation | Thin |
| Settlement | Continuous payoff | Binary resolution |
| Upside Cap | No Cap | 100x |
| Signal output | Clean — predictions median | Noisy — measured against spot |
| Horizon | Up to 8 weeks, extensible | Fixed contract terms |
WHY DEPTH MATTERS
Twenty Pools, One Asset
A binary market on gold is not one market — it is twenty to forty independent pools, one per threshold. Capital on "above $4,300" cannot serve "above $4,350".
Depth Splits, Spreads Widen
Each pool holds a fraction of the total capital that would flow into the asset otherwise. The tails — the strikes furthest from spot — suffer the most.
One Pool, Full Depth
A scalar pool accepts every price. Depth concentrates in a single venue, so a position near $4,312 and a position near $4,500 draw from the same reserve.
A SIGNAL WORTH READING
A binary market tells you how many traders think the price will cross a given line. A scalar market tells you where traders believe the price will be — without any reference to any buckets.
That distinction matters most to the desks that consume prediction data as research. An asset manager building a view on gold does not want to know how many traders are above $4,300. They want the consensus expectation itself, with a dispersion around it.
Scalar markets produce exactly that. Each active market returns a price distribution, a mean, and a horizon — a snapshot of collective expectation that can be tracked over time, compared across assets, and published as a reference rate.
Reference-quality data
On-chain, timestamped, and auditable. Built for consumption by research desks, data vendors, and analytics platforms that need a clean forward expectation on an asset.
Extensible horizons
Current coverage runs to 8 weeks. The horizon parameter is not capped by design — quarterly, semi-annual, and annual markets are a natural extension when demand calls for them.
WHAT CHANGES
Precision
State the price you actually believe. No rounding to the nearest available bucket.
Shared Depth
Trade against every other prediction on the same asset, not just the traders who picked the same price.
Exit Anytime
Your position is a standard ERC-20. Trade out before settlement at a market-determined price.
Continuous Payout
Payoff scales with accuracy at distance. Partial correctness is partial reward.
MOVING FROM BINARY TO SCALAR
Anyone familiar with binary prediction markets already understands the core loop: form a view, take a position, wait for resolution. The mechanics of Unbinary will feel familiar — the difference is how much more precisely a view can be expressed.
For a trader used to picking the nearest strike, the shift is small. Instead of "above $4,300", you enter $4,312.50. Distance from spot and horizon are captured automatically at mint. The token you receive is the same kind of instrument you already know — an ERC-20 you can hold, transfer, or sell before settlement.
Nothing is taken away. What is added is resolution, shared depth, and a settlement schedule that pays for accuracy rather than proximity to the nearest round number.