HOW IT WORKS
From a trader's price prediction to on-chain settlement. The full lifecycle of a scalar prediction on Unbinary — and the ERC-8378 primitive that makes it possible.
FROM QUOTE TO SETTLEMENT
Choose Asset & Horizon
Pick any supported asset — BTC, gold, WTI, an index — and a resolution date. Every asset has its weekly resolution time; minting closes 2 hours before settlement.
Quote Your Price
Enter the price you believe the asset will settle at. Not "above X" or "below Y" — the exact number. This becomes your Prediction parameter.
Mint Your Prediction
Your position is minted as an ERC-8378 parametric token carrying your Prediction and its Distance from current spot. Commit time-progressing USDC amount.
Hold or Trade
Unbinary offers P2P trading in the shared pool. The token's price tracks the Convergence Ratio (equal to Distance / Error) — the closer the asset drifts toward your prediction, the more it is worth.
Settle & Redeem
At resolution, settlement uses the respective oracle price. Accurate predictions are redeemed proportionally to [Balance * Convergence Ratio]. Report your prediction manually or use automation.
ERC-8378, IN PLAIN WORDS
ERC-8378 is a token standard for parametric assets — ERC-20 tokens where every balance carries its own numeric parameters.
In Unbinary, that parameter is your price prediction. Two wallets holding the same token can hold different predictions, because each balance is annotated with its own number.
The standard defines how those parameters behave on transfer, who is allowed to receive them, and how multiple parameter variants coexist in a single liquidity pool.
Unbinary is the production layer built on top of this primitive: minting engine with oracle integration, rewards pool, settlement logic, and a P2P trading platform.
WHAT ERC-8378 BRINGS
SET OF PARAMETERS
PER-ACCOUNT ARRAY
Every token balance carries an array of uint64 parameters — Asset, prediction Round, your exact price Prediction and respective Distance.
MUTABLE PARAMETERS
DETERMINISTIC MUTATION
On mint or transfer mutable parameters update via a pure function. Unbinary uses weighted-average mutation for Prediction and Distance. Asset and Round are immutable parameters.
INBOUND PERMISSIONS
YOU CONTROL RECEIPTS
Unlike other token standards, ERC-8378 has inbound protection. Accounts can declare which parameters they are willing to receive. You cannot be force-fed a prediction token whose parameters violate your policy.
SUB-ACCOUNTS
PARTITIONS IN ONE WALLET
A single address can hold many parameter variants simultaneously — different prices, distances, horizons — without deploying new wallets. To enable this, you have to convert your account into Super account.
PREDICTION PRICING
Market price of every position is defined by two numbers - Prediction and Distance, both stored as on-chain parameters and both updated by weighted-average mutation on transfer.
Parameters
Asset
[immutable, manual selection] Applicable asset ID with oracle price feed.
Round
[immutable, manual selection] Weekly resolution time ID. Up to 8 weeks in the future.
Prediction
[mutable, manual setup] The price you believe the asset will settle at resolution time.
Distance
[mutable, automatic setup] How far your Prediction sits from spot at mint time.
Error
| Prediction − Spot | at any moment before resolution.
The current value of your token is proportional to Convergence Ratio = Distance / Error. The closer the asset price drifts toward your Prediction, the more your token is worth. Convergence Ratio has a cap to avoid division by zero.
At mint time Convergence Ratio = 1.0.
Token transfers have a constraint: both sender's and recipient's token Predictions can't be separated by Spot price. This applies to mint as well.
Minting is horizon-agnostic: the USDC commitment scales as Par · sqrt(8 Weeks / Time-to-Resolution), where Par is set to 1 USDC. Every horizon has its own rewards pool. Minting closes 2 hours before resolution.
ONE POOL
EVERY PREDICTION
Because parameters are handled inside the token contract, tokens carrying different predictions can be traded in the same pool. The contract merges compatible parameters automatically on mint/transfer.
The result: no fragmentation across different predictions. Depth concentrates in a single venue per asset, spreads tighten, and the aggregate price signal reflects the full distribution of trader expectations — not just where spot happens to be.
FAQ
No. Binary markets resolve Yes/No against a single threshold. A scalar prediction resolves against an exact price and pays inversely to your prediction error.